Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are expected to ease from $37 billion in 2023–24 to around $28 billion by 2025–26 as prices fall. 

Thermal coal spot prices are expected to gradually decline over the outlook period, from US$136 a tonne in 2024 to US$115 a tonne by 2026. Contract prices are expected to fall from around US$200 a tonne (in theJapanese financial year 2023–24), converging on spot prices. 

Export volumes are expected to be stable at around 205 Mt over the outlook period (see Australia section). A potential recurrence of the La Niña cycle presents a risk to supply.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2024)