Australia’s lithium export earnings are forecast to fall from $9.9 billion in 2023–24 to $6.5 billion in 2025–26 compared to September 2024 forecast of 8.2 billion in 2025–26. The fall will be driven by a weaker lithium price, with Australian mine output expected to average 9% annual growth over the outlook period (even incorporating recent production curtailments at some mines). 

Global lithium demand is forecast to rise by 22% a year to 2026, driven by rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption. In 2024, strong sales in China have continued to offset weakness in the US and EU markets. 

The current surplus in global lithium markets is expected to narrow following suspension of some production across higher cost hard rock mining operations around the world, including China, Zimbabwe and Australia.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-december-2024)