Australia’s lithium export earnings are projected to fall by more than half over the forecast period — from $20 billion in 2022-23 to $9.1 billion in 2025-26. The fall is set to be driven by weaker lithium prices, which are expected to be partially offset by a 53% increase in Australia’s lithium mine production over the outlook period. Export earnings forecasts were revised down from the March 2024 REQ. 

Global lithium demand is projected to rise by 17% a year between 2023 to 2026, driven by the rising adoption of electric vehicles. However, weak Chinese demand and shifting policies in the US and EU could see EV sales growth continue to remain slow. 

The Rise in global lithium supply will see the lithium market remain in surplus. Chinese lithium lepidolite production has seen only modest declines despite falls in prices, and there are sizeable project pipelines in Australia and among emerging producers such as Argentina and Zimbabwe.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2024)