The free on board (FOB) Australian alumina price reached record highs in the December quarter 2024, on the back of reduced supply of alumina and bauxite from Australia and Guinea. The alumina price is expected to remain elevated over the outlook period and is likely to push the London Metal Exchange (LME) primary aluminium spot price above US$2,500 a tonne in 2025 and 2026. 

Over the outlook period, Australian primary aluminium output is expected to be stable at 1.6 million tonnes (Mt) a year. Australian alumina output may fall to under 18 Mt a year, due to the production curtailment at Kwinana refinery. Australian bauxite output should rise to over 100 Mt a year, driven by mine expansion in Queensland. 

High Australian alumina prices and bauxite export volumes are forecast to drive Australia’s total aluminium, alumina and bauxite (AAB) export earnings to a new record high of $20 billion in 2024–25.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-december-2024)