The London Metal Exchange (LME) primary aluminium spot price reached a two-year high in May 2024, as countries imposed sanctions on Russian aluminium exports. As the market adjusts to the ban and looks at the possibility of rising trade tensions between the US and China, aluminium prices are expected to rise over the outlook period (to end 2026). 

Australia’s primary aluminium output is forecast to be 1.6 million tonnes (Mt) a year in 2024 and onwards. However, Alcoa’s decision to curtail output at its Kwinana alumina refinery in WA by the end of the June quarter 2024 is likely to take Australian alumina output below 19 Mt a year. Mine expansions and new mines are expected to boost Australian bauxite output to 107 Mt by 2025–26. 

Higher aluminium prices and production ramp-ups at existing bauxite operations are likely to boost Australia’s aluminium, alumina and bauxite exports to $18 billion by 2025–26.

(source: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2024)